The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025, a 0.4 percentage point increase from its April projection of 3.0%.
This revision was detailed in the IMF’s July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
A review of the report showed that the upgrading of Nigeria’s economic growth forecast reflects “improved global financial conditions, stronger trade activity, and ongoing economic reforms.”
The forecast also projects a 3.2% growth for Nigeria’s economy in 2026.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economy outperforms South Africa’s projected 1.0% growth for 2025, though it lags behind faster-growing economies like India (6.4%) and Saudi Arabia (3.6%).
Commenting on the latest Nigeria’s economic growth forecast, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research, FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the upward revision indicates growing confidence in the country’s economic reforms
He said: “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points.
“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”
However, he added that this growth remains modest, insufficient to address Nigeria’s poverty challenges, with over 40% of the population living below the poverty line.
Also, the IMF’s optimism extended beyond Nigeria, with the organisation projecting global growth at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026.
IMF said the projection in growth is driven by lower tariffs and improved financial conditions.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF forecasted 4.0% growth in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, outpacing Nigeria’s figures.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF said in its WEO report.
