Foreign Master’s enrolment in the United States (U.S) is set to dip by 15% in the 25/26 Academic Session, according to a recent analysis conducted by Validated Insights, a higher education marketing agency.
The projected decline points to a sharp drop of about 64,000 fewer international master’s students than previously anticipated, reversing years of steady growth in this segment.
The report noted that projections had earlier estimated foreign master’s enrolment in the U.S to reach as high as 660,000 for the 2025/26 academic year, but updated forecasts now indicate a 15% reduction due to ongoing barriers.
Key factors driving this decline include stringent visa policies, including pauses in visa interviews during peak periods, expanded social media vetting requirements, and limited appointment availability at consulates in major source countries such as India, China, and Nigeria.
These administrative hurdles have contributed to a notable drop in new foreign master’s enrolments in the U.S.
Additionally, uncertainty surrounding post-study work opportunities, such as Optional Practical Training (OPT), has deterred prospective students.
Part of the report reads: “According to the newly released report from higher education marketing and research firm Validated Insights, enrollment in, and demand for master’s degree programs, is trending upward. However, growth is not evenly distributed and there are obstacles to future growth.
“Among many key findings, the report shows that completions of master’s degrees are projected to grow at a 1.9% compound annual growth rate, and will surpass one million in the 2027-28 academic year.
“While enrollment growth is not projected to proceed on quite the same growth trajectory, online enrollment is projected to grow at a 3.8% compound annual growth rate from Fall 2025 to Fall 2030. Meanwhile, on-campus enrollment will decline, and online enrollment is estimated to surpass on-campus enrollment in 2025.
“71% of institutional leaders reported an uptick in demand for online graduate programs in 2024. However, just 40% of institutional leaders indicated that their online graduate programs were contributing to growth, which illustrates that not all are gaining students despite the larger picture.”
The report revealed that international enrolments have been driving the upward trajectory of U.S master’s programs since 2018/19, as domestic enrolments have declined.
From academic years 2018/19 to 2023/24, domestic master’s enrolment saw a 0.5% decline, while international enrolments grew by more than 6%, producing an overall growth rate of 0.4%.
Since 2021, the number of international master’s enrolments has steadily increased by over 11%, with this year’s sharp drop likely to have financial repercussions for institutions planning for sustained growth.
“Recently, projections indicated that international master’s enrolment in 2025/26 would be as high as 660,000, meaning there are now expected to be 64,000 fewer of these students than previously anticipated in 2025/26,” the report stated.
Speaking on the report, Brady Colby, head of market research at Validated Insights, said that: “Uncertainty around immigration policies appears to be one of the primary drivers, if not the primary driver, of the decline in international enrolments.”
