The World Bank raises Nigeria’s 2026 economic outlook with a growth rate projected to reach 4.4%, a significant jump from the 3.7% previously forecasted.
This revision, detailed in the January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, suggests that the country is on track for its strongest economic performance in over a decade.
According to the report, the primary drivers of this acceleration in Nigeria’s economic outlook include a robust expansion in the services sector and a steady recovery in agricultural output.
The World Bank also noted that Nigeria is benefiting from its transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products, which has stabilized the external trade balance and boosted domestic energy security.
The global financial institution emphasized that the decision to raise Nigeria’s 2026 economic outlook is anchored on the government’s commitment to tax system overhauls and prudent monetary policy. These measures are expected to further temper inflation—which is projected to decline to roughly 19.5% by the end of the year—and improve the overall business climate for foreign direct investment.
According to the report, the 2027 global economic growth rate is projected at 2.7 percent, compared to the 2.6 percent forecasted in June 2025.
The World Bank said the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
However, the bank noted that while global growth remains stable, it is concentrated in advanced economies and is unlikely to reduce extreme poverty, with the 2020s on track to be the weakest decade since the 1960s.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” the World Bank said.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity.”
These policy measures, the Bank said, should help to “improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance,” the World Bank said.
The institution said global growth will slow in 2026 as trade-related boosts fade, but easing financial conditions and fiscal expansion are expected to cushion the impact.
It added that inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6 percent in 2026, with growth picking up in 2027 as trade and policy uncertainty ease.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist, said that with each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth while appearing more resilient to policy uncertainty.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” Gill said.
“Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s, while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
The World Bank said sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is expected to rise to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027.
In 2026, the institution said growth in developing economies is projected to slow to 4 percent from 4.2 percent in 2025 before edging up to 4.1 percent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
The bank noted that growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, averaging 5.6 percent over 2026–2027, supported by stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
The World Bank said developing economies will continue to lag behind advanced economies, with per capita income growth projected at 3 percent in 2026, widening the income gap.
“At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies,” the institution said.
