African debt repayments to China have now exceeded the volume of new loans obtained, recent data emerging on Wednesday has revealed.
For many years, Chinese credit has fueled an infrastructure boom across the African continent.
However, as of 2025, data has revealed that the tide is receding. Recent financial data revealed a critical inflection point that African nations are now paying back more to Beijing in interest and principal than they are receiving in fresh capital.
This reversal marks the end of an era of easy credit and leaves many governments balancing the books between mounting debt obligations and the urgent need for domestic development.
This data on African debt repayments to China was contained in a report issued by ONE Data.
The inaugural report by the ONE Data initiative found that many low- and middle-income countries — particularly in Africa — are now transferring more funds to China in debt payments than they receive in fresh financing from the world’s second-largest economy.
Data covering the 2020–2024 period revealed a $52 billion “swing” in financial flows. Between 2015 and 2019, African nations enjoyed a net inflow of about $30 billion from Chinese sources. By contrast, the most recent five-year window showed a net outflow of $22 billion.
According to reports, the debt reversal is also evident with a sharp contraction in new lending, which fell to just $2.1 billion in 2024 from a peak of $28.8 billion in 2016.
The report reads in part: “Chinese finance has undergone a ‘Great Reversal’. China went from being a net provider of finance—transferring $48 billion to low- and lower-middle-income countries (via official and private lenders) a decade ago—to a net extractor of $24 billion.
“Africa has experienced the most dramatic reversal in Chinese finance. It went from receiving $30 billion to paying out $22 billion, a $52 billion swing.
“China went from being the 4th largest net provider in 2010-2014 to the largest net extractor in 2020-2024.
“In 2024 alone, China extracted $12.3 billion. That is more than any single DAC country, other than the US, contributed.
“Chinese inflows to low- and lower-middle-income countries collapsed (from $26.5 billion in 2018 to $5.1 billion in 2024) while debt service outflows to China rose (from $10.6 billion to $17.4 billion). In 2020-2024, 20 of these countries experienced net outflows to China, with total extraction of $33.8 billion.”
This development also collided with the maturity of massive loans taken out during the height of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
”The fact that there’s less lending coming in, but that previous lending from China still needs to be serviced—that’s the source of the outflows,” David McNair, Executive Director at ONE Data explained.
To fill the void, many nations have turned back toward multilateral institutions like the World Bank and the African Development Bank, which have increased their net financing by 124% over the last decade.
The report added: “Multilateral institutions—including MDBs like the World Bank—have increased financing by 124%. They now account for 56% of net flows, up from 28% a decade earlier.
“These institutions provide grants, low-cost lending, and technical knowledge. They are generally regarded as providing “high-quality” finance because of their expertise and focus on development. They also reduce the fragmentation that countries face when dealing with multiple bilateral donors, each with its own priority initiatives and projects.”
Pan-Atlantic Kompass reports that the ONE Data’s report on African debt repayments to China comes as Kenya is battling with a high debt-to-GDP ratio.
In October 2025, the Kenyan government announced that it had converted $5 billion in dollar-denominated Chinese loans into Chinese Yuan (Renminbi).
The Kenyan government explained that by switching to the yuan, the country would avoid the “double tax” of a surging U.S. dollar. This move alone is projected to save the Kenyan Treasury roughly $215 million annually in interest costs.
Most of Kenya’s debt to China stemmed from the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).
In Nigeria, the exposure to Chinese debt is smaller relative to its total economy. Only about 7% of its public debt is owed to China.
However, the timing of the report comes as Nigeria’s external debt servicing costs jumped nearly 40%, with total servicing projected to hit $5.2 billion by the end of 2026.
According to the Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) Database, which is kept by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center, between 2000 and 2024, 42 Chinese lenders signed 1,319 loan agreements worth $180.87 billion with 49 African states and seven regional entities.
