The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Monday that Nigeria’s inflation dropped to 15.10% for January 2026.
This marginal decline from the 15.15% recorded in December 2025 marks a defiance of market analyst projections, which had anticipated a sharp “mechanical” spike to nearly 18% due to base effects and CPI normalization.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a continued disinflationary trend that began in late 2025.
On a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s inflation rate in January 2026 dropped significantly compared to the same period last year. The January 2026 rate of 15.10% is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025.
The report also showed a contraction in prices compared to the previous month. Inflation stood at –2.88% month on month in January 2026, compared to 0.54% in December 2025, representing a drop of 3.42 percentage points.
According to the NBS, this indicates that the general price level declined in January, meaning the average cost of goods and services fell relative to December.
Despite the recent easing, the broader inflation trend remains elevated. The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 21.97%, compared to the previous twelve-month period.
This represents a 4.37 percentage point increase from the 17.59% recorded in January 2025, showing that underlying price pressures over the past year remain significant.
Food inflation, the largest component of household spending, fell sharply in January, providing the biggest relief to consumers.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation stood at 8.89%, a steep drop of 20.73 percentage points from 29.63% recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, food prices declined further to –6.02%, compared to –0.36% in December 2025, representing a decrease of 5.66 percentage points.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling average prices of staple items, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate for the period ending January 2026 was 20.29%, significantly lower than the 38.47% recorded in January 2025, indicating sustained easing in food price pressures over the past year.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72% year on year in January 2026, down by 7.55 percentage points from 25.27% recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined to –1.69%, compared to 0.58% in December 2025, showing slower price increases in non-food items.
The twelve-month average core inflation rate was 22.84%, representing a 4.40 percentage point decline from 27.24% recorded in January 2025.
