International student recruitment at UK universities faced fresh pressure in September 2026, with Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuance dropping almost a quarter and visa refusals rising sharply, according to new figures from Enroly.
CAS issuance numbers across Enroly’s network of UK university partners fell 23.7% year-on-year for the September 2026 intake.
Acceptances declined a more modest 13.8%. The widening gap highlights a clear conversion challenge: only 57.2% of accepted students progressed to CAS, down from 76.0% the previous year.
Visa refusals climbed 43.5% compared with the same period last year, accelerating from the 30% rise noted in Enroly’s earlier update.
Catherine Winter, group CEO of Enroly and Ecctis, described the intake as presenting “a varied picture, with growth in some markets and subject areas alongside significant pressure in others.”
Across all nationalities, 4.5% of students who reached a visa outcome were refused. When measured against all CAS issued, the rate stood at 3.7%. Enroly regards the outcome-based figure as the more accurate measure of risk, since not every CAS holder has received a decision yet.
Five countries — Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Ghana — accounted for 79.6% of all refusals recorded by Enroly.
Ghana recorded the highest refusal rate among highlighted markets at 43.9% of visa outcomes, followed by Sri Lanka (30.0%), Bangladesh (21.0%) and Pakistan (19.4%). Nigeria alone made up 26.7% of total refusals, with numbers rising around 160% year-on-year.
India’s refusal rate stayed comparatively low at 2.4%, yet the volume of applications meant Indian students still represented 13% of all refusals.
Pakistan saw the steepest decline among the ten markets analysed: acceptances down 53.4% and CAS issuance plunging 62.7%. Bangladesh recorded a 41.6% drop in CAS numbers, Ghana 48.2% and Sri Lanka 45.1%. Enroly noted that Pakistan and Bangladesh “remain among the hardest hit after the Home Office tightened compliance rules, with several universities pausing recruitment there.”
Nigeria illustrated the conversion challenge most clearly. Acceptances actually rose 1.6%, but CAS issuance fell 43.9%, and the acceptance-to-CAS rate dropped from 70.5% to 38.9%. Enroly linked the shift largely to naira devaluation and tighter financial checks.
Not every market declined. Chinese CAS issuance edged up 2.0%, while Nepal rose 15.5%. Enroly suggested Nepal benefited from students displaced by Australia’s stricter visa settings. The US market, previously flagged as a potential growth area, reversed course with CAS numbers down 12.3%.
Enroly cautioned against direct comparisons with the Home Office’s latest rolling refusal rate of 4.9%. The official figure covers all UK sponsors and visa categories over 12 months, while Enroly’s data reflects student-declared outcomes at partner universities for a single intake.
Winter expects “continued pressure” into the next intake. “Affordability, tighter compliance requirements and changes to post-study work rights will continue to shape the decisions students and universities make,” she said.
She also pointed to reasons for cautious optimism: “Within our network, some markets and subject areas are still growing, showing that opportunities remain. We’ll have more data on the January intake soon, giving us a clearer indication of how these pressures are playing out.”
Winter stressed the value of timely information: “There has never been a greater need for up-to-date, live data to inform decisions. Universities need to understand how their intake is developing, where applicants are progressing or stalling, and how that compares with wider market trends – early enough to act.”
The latest Enroly figures underline the complex environment facing UK higher education as institutions navigate shifting student demand, compliance rules and economic factors across major recruitment markets.
