Skilled migrants and their adult dependants expected to settle in the UK under existing rules would make a net lifetime contribution of around £115bn to public finances, according to new analysis from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
The findings on UK public finances come as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced final decisions on major reforms to indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
The report used the same methodology as the government’s estimate that settling overseas care workers and their adult dependants would cost taxpayers about £10 billion over their lifetimes.
IPPR calculated the figure for skilled workers (including those on health and care visas) and their adult dependants projected to gain settlement between 2026 and 2030 under the current five-year pathway.
Applying Migration Advisory Committee lifetime fiscal impact estimates to Home Office volume forecasts produced a net positive of roughly £115 billion in 2022/23 prices.
The breakdown shows strong positive contributions from skilled worker main applicants excluding health and care (£113 billion) and health and care main applicants (£10 billion), offset partially by adult dependants in the health and care category (around –£9 billion), with other dependants roughly neutral.
Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, said: “Public debate has focused heavily on the costs of recent migration, but this is not the whole story. Our analysis suggests that over their lifetimes, skilled migrants are estimated to make a net contribution of billions to the public finances.”
The analysis comes after reforms to lengthen the qualifying period for settlement from five years to a default of 10 years, or 15 years for lower-skilled roles including many care workers. The reforms, which followed a large public consultation attracting more than 200,000 responses, could apply to people already in the UK on routes to settlement.
IPPR noted that reports of potential exemptions for care workers already in the country—keeping them on the five-year route—would represent a significant compromise affecting hundreds of thousands of people. The think tank urged ministers to consider transitional arrangements for other skilled workers already in the UK, such as an interim status after five years that would allow job changes without sponsorship while preserving a pathway to full settlement.
Morris added that the government should “honour the rules people came here under or offer a fair compromise that gives them a secure pathway to settlement and freedom to change jobs after five years.”
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has described indefinite leave as a “right to be earned” through contribution, while stopping short of fully endorsing every detail of the original proposals. The IPPR analysis highlights the fiscal upside of retaining skilled migrants under current settlement rules at a time when the government seeks to balance control of migration with economic needs and fairness to those already contributing.
The findings underscore that fiscal impacts of migration vary sharply by route and earnings, with higher-skilled workers typically delivering substantial net benefits through taxes paid relative to public service costs over their lifetimes.
