Recent reports emerging on Sunday have revealed that Nigeria recorded an estimated N5trn windfall from crude oil sales in just two months.
The N5trn oil windfall was said to be due to global prices that spiked amid tensions tied to the United States–Iran conflict, delivering revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget projections.
The surge comes despite production levels remaining below target for much of the period, underlining how heavily Nigeria’s fiscal fortunes still depend on global oil price movements rather than domestic output stability.
When the conflict began on February 28, crude oil traded below $70 per barrel. Since then, prices have soared dramatically, at one point crossing $120. As of late April, Brent crude hovered around $110 per barrel, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light traded as high as $134.
The 2026 budget was benchmarked on a daily production of 1.8 million barrels, a price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar, translating to expected daily oil revenue of about ₦163.42 billion.
In March, Nigeria produced an average of 1.55 million barrels per day, with oil priced at $95.03 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,370. This pushed daily revenue to approximately ₦201.8 billion, about ₦38.38 billion above projections. Over the 31 days, that translated into a windfall of roughly ₦1.19 trillion.
The gains intensified in April as both production and prices climbed. Output rose to an estimated 1.7 million barrels per day, while prices averaged $127.05 per barrel. With the naira trading at about ₦1,365 to the dollar, daily oil revenue jumped to ₦294.84 billion – creating a daily surplus of ₦131.42 billion. Over 30 days, this yielded an additional ₦3.94 trillion.
Combined, the two months delivered a total windfall of about ₦5.13 trillion, with price increases accounting for the bulk of the gains.
Analysts note that even with improved production in April, the extraordinary rise in global oil prices remained the dominant driver of revenue growth. Without the price surge, earnings would have fallen short of projections despite steady output.
While the development offers short-term fiscal relief, it also exposes Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks. A drop in oil prices could quickly reverse these gains, given the country’s continued reliance on crude exports.
Meanwhile, the windfall has done little to ease the burden on ordinary Nigerians, as fuel prices continue to climb in response to the same global trends boosting government revenue.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recently raised official selling prices for its crude grades, with Bonny Light and Forcados seeing notable increases. This has translated directly into higher domestic fuel costs.
At the retail level, petrol prices have surged sharply. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its gantry price to ₦1,275 per litre, while filling stations across the country now sell fuel between ₦1,350 and ₦1,400 per litre, depending on location.
Industry stakeholders have expressed concern over the government’s apparent inaction despite rising revenues.
The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, urged authorities to deploy part of the windfall to cushion the impact on citizens.
He warned that petrol prices could exceed ₦1,500 per litre if tensions in the Middle East persist.
Energy experts have echoed similar concerns, describing the situation as a “double-edged sword” – boosting national income while worsening inflation and living costs.
